教条贝叶斯主义障碍：一篇模仿 DSM-5 的讽刺博文
Dogmatic Bayesianism Disorder
Daniel Lakens 在方法与复现博客发布讽刺博文《教条贝叶斯主义障碍》，模仿美国心理学会 DSM-5 的障碍分类格式，虚构诊断标准 F61.1，并注明教条贝叶斯主义目前并非 DSM-5 中的真实心理障碍。文中列出对非贝叶斯者的嘲讽、对贝叶斯统计的执念等症状，并称普通人群患病率低于 0.01%，统计学倾向学者中估计为 1% 至 2%。
正文 · 原文
Note: This humorously intended sarcastic blog post directly mimics classifications of psychological disorders in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of the American Psychological Association, but Dogmatic Bayesianism is not in the DSM-5 as an actual psychological disorder - for now.
Dogmatic Bayesianism Disorder
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Diagnostic Criteria F61.1 |
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A. Individuals are convinced that they know what other people want to know. |
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B. Individuals believe that everyone who is not a Bayesian is wrong. They almost continuously try to convince others, and there is often a strong feeling others need to be ‘saved’. |
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C. Strong tendency to ridicule non-Bayesians, including historical figures. Karl Popper (who opposed Bayesianism, as it opens the door to dogmatism in science) is an especially common target. |
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D. A pervasive obsession with Bayesian statistics, and the use of p-values or hypothesis testing by others, at the expense of flexibility, openness, and acknowledging that other coherent statistical approaches exist to deal with uncertainty. E. Symptoms cause clinically significant impairment in social, occupational, or other important areas of current functioning. The forceful insertion of Bayesian statistics into conversations can drive away conversation partners, to the point where almost all social contact is restricted to other dogmatic Bayesians. |
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F. Individuals believe everyone else will become a Bayesian. Older dogmatic Bayesian often lose bets that everyone will have become a Bayesian by a specific year. If this bet is lost, they continue to claim everyone will become a Bayesian in the future and consider this a rationally updated belief. Specify if: Persistent: The disorder has been present for more than 12 months. Specify current severity: Dogmatic Bayesianism Disorder is specified as severe when an academic exhibits all symptoms of the disorder, at which point individuals are classified as having Bayesian Evangelical Syndrome (BES). |
Prevalence
Less than 0.01% of the general population is affected, but prevalence is estimated to be at 1% to 2% in statistically inclined academics. Due to diagnostic criterion E prevalence can be up to 80% on certain internet forums. Men are more frequently affected than women, at a ratio estimated at 100:1 or greater.
Development and course
Development of the condition often starts in the early thirties, but onset can occur at an older age, in which case the symptoms are often much more severe. There is currently no treatment, and dogmatic Bayesianism typically increases with age. In rare cases (less than 1%) spontaneous recovery seems to occur, after which individuals often experience prolonged feelings of shame and embarrassment.
Risk and Prognostic Factors
The disorder is more common in individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).
来源：Daniel Lakens · 方法与复现 · daniellakens.blogspot.com